Just another Thai coup!
September 19th, 2006 by LAIt seems as if “the military” or at least the military units in control of Metropolitan Bangkok and Central Thailand have stepped in and taken control of the government under nominal martial law, declaring loyalty to the King (Bhumiphol Adulyadej). They waited until the Prime Minister (Thaksin Shinawatra) was on the other side of the world, waiting to speak to the UN in New York City. Barring something sinister or terribly unusual happening, now that the King’s name and authority has been invoked, the dynamic part of the coup is essentially over with the military having “won.”
The council appointed over the next day or so by the military will begin taking steps to establish the ground rules for a temporary government that will be in place from now until they can reasonably schedule a new round of elections, most likely in the spring. Having invoked the name of the king, this council will be expected to act reasonably. Thaksin will likely return to Bangkok this week and step down. Don’t expect Thaksin to attempt to secure his power in a countercoup. He will defer to the wishes of the King. We can expect that the King will demand a smooth transition to a functioning government without any violence. It would be very unusual for his wishes to go unheeded.
The Thaksin Shinawatra government has for all intents and purposes fallen in a bloodless coup.
Good riddance!
September 19th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
Does that mean an end to the child sex trade? Do they know where their tourist money comes from? These guys aren’t interested in tramping around musty old temples. They want lusty young tramps.
September 19th, 2006 at 3:12 pm
Amen LA!
September 19th, 2006 at 3:41 pm
Grant that I don\’t know much about Thailand, but, are we for the subordination of democratic norms in favor of juntas, the declaration of martial law, and the rule of kings, or against?
September 19th, 2006 at 4:59 pm
If by “we” you mean Americans, then I can assure you that at least 30% of voting Americans have no problem with the military supporting a single political party.
September 19th, 2006 at 5:35 pm
Excellent point, Georgie. It is something that I have spent quite a bit of time mulling over.
First - no - as an American Democracy-lover, the idea of a king rubs me the wrong way. I would never advocate for the existence of a king. Contemporary royalty bothers me in nearly all contexts.
The Thai people, however, LOVE their king. They LOVE him - almost to the point where he is revered as a semi-deity. As long as the Thai people support and love their king, I suppose I can’t begrudge.
> bbiab
September 19th, 2006 at 9:06 pm
Sorry - I indicated that that wasn’t my final answer and that I’d “be back in a bit,” but only the bbiab part came through.
Anyway - Shinawatra has already acted against Democracy in Thailand. I see this as a correction forcing the country back on the right Democracy track.
Setting aside questions of Thaksin’s morality and business practices, we can focus on the events of this past winter.
Thaksin sold his company - a telecommunications company that is essentially the backbone of all electronic communications in Thailand. Without regulation or oversight, he sold the company to Singapore - a “rival” country. Furthermore, he made the sale in such a way that he and his family received USD$1.8 billion for the sale - and didn’t pay a single dollar in tax.
This, naturally, didn’t go over well with many of the Thai people. Parliament began an investigation of the sale and tax situation, and in response Shinawatra dissolved parliament.
So, Georgie - royal decrees, military juntas, martial law, etc. are usually bad things. Given Thailand’s history with such events and general trends towards Democracy, I have high confidence that this will play itself out positively. I hope I’m not proven wrong.
September 20th, 2006 at 2:39 am
LA–
Although it’s somewhat satisfying to see a crook like Thaksin get what he deserves, I don’t like the way this has played out. I think that in the long run, Thailand would be better off dealing with their criminal-in-chief the same way Italy dealt with theirs: by waiting for the next election and voting for his rival.
It’s not nearly as satisfying, and the country does suffer for the time that the crook is in office, but it’s better than the constant cycle of coups and caretaker governments.
And while the king has been able to force the military junta to give up power in the past, some future king might favor a fascist takeover, much as Victor Emmanuel III granted his blessing to Mussolini.
September 20th, 2006 at 11:41 am
I totally agree, gordo, however now that it has happened with the current cast of characters which includes the reliably benevolent king, and it has indeed been bloodless, one can see good things to come moving forward. If all goes well, and Thailand’s history tells us that it is likely to go well, what we’ve just seen is an illegal and irreversable move in the right direction. A temporary ruling council will be appointed immediately. Dates for elections will be set. Thaksin will be allowed home and given access to his billions of dollars and a year from now this episode will be all but forgotten.
September 20th, 2006 at 12:51 pm
George asked:
We don’t know if the military will restore some sort of democracy, but we do know that the deposed Prime Minister had acted against the former democracy.
At worst, it’s trading one autocracy for another.
September 20th, 2006 at 7:03 pm
I believe in my heart that the interim council installed by the military will set and meet election dates within 6 months.
I will be very disappointed if they don’t.
September 21st, 2006 at 10:22 am
Quoth gordo:
With the kind of populist support that Thickskin commanded of the urban poor (majority voters), this would be virtually impossible. Unfortunately, most people aren’t motivated by ideals especially when things like healthcare are at stake.
September 21st, 2006 at 10:22 am
Quoth LA:
One would hope.
September 21st, 2006 at 12:54 pm
From L.A. Times:
Turmoil in Thailand
Thai King should take a page from Juan Carlos –don’t let the military dictate politics.
September 20, 2006
THERE HAD BEEN 17 MILITARY COUPS in Thailand since its absolute monarchy was abolished in 1932. Number 18 occurred Tuesday, when soldiers circled the offices of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with tanks, seized TV stations and declared martial law. The military claimed to be acting on behalf of the popular monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
Thaksin was in New York at the time to attend a session of the United Nations, and his future as Thai leader is now seriously in doubt. The coup could also jeopardize the recent stability and economic prosperity across Southeast Asia, traditionally among the most volatile regions in the world. Thailand has been an anchor to that stability, but now the restive foes of Thaksin are taking a huge step backward. It would be in the best interest of the country if its monarch took a page from the Spanish playbook and came out against the coup — as King Juan Carlos I did in 1981 — if he is free to do so.
Thaksin, a billionaire media mogul, is very popular in the rural north but widely despised in Bangkok. The first democratically-elected Thai prime minister to serve a full four-year term, he was first elected in 2001 and easily reelected in 2005. But urban voters, dissatisfied with Thaksin’s control of the media, manipulation of democratic institutions, mishandling of a Muslim insurgency and other issues, held frequent protests against his regime.
Thaksin responded by holding snap elections in April, and won once again. But the election was boycotted by the minority party, leaving 38 parliamentary seats unfilled, and Thaksin wisely decided to step down. Then, after the courts declared the April election invalid, Thaksin returned to work as “caretaker” prime minister in a country without a parliament, while new elections were scheduled for this fall.
Thaksin bears some blame for his government’s downfall. Had he made it clear that he wouldn’t seek the premiership after the coming elections, opposition and turmoil in Bangkok would have died down. Had he not tried to interfere with military decisions, he wouldn’t have created the fury among army leaders that may have prompted them to take action.
The coup could produce deep uncertainty at best and violent uprisings at worst, and it may threaten economies throughout the region. That’s a heavy price to pay for one man’s refusal to cede power and a refusal by his people to accept a concept taken for granted in more mature democracies: Sometimes in free elections, your side loses.
September 21st, 2006 at 1:00 pm
“Sometimes in free elections, your side loses.”
Indefinitely, even.
September 23rd, 2006 at 7:50 am
Get rid of the king. He is a meddler in democratic processes.
September 23rd, 2006 at 10:33 pm
Mae govannen, Smeagol. But let me put it this way: highly likely.
September 23rd, 2006 at 10:47 pm
Aragorn for king of Thailand!
September 23rd, 2006 at 10:59 pm
Smeagol & anyone else who cares—
Just FTR, I was being sarcastic when I said highly likely. Seriously, not going to happen unless the fabric of space-time rips. Let’s not forget who ceded absolute power to begin with.
Tommykey—
Éomer Éadig son of Éomund, Third Marshal of the Riddermark, has got everything under control.
Éomer: “Don’t worry, ah got this bitch-ass! *POW*”
Grima Wormtongue: “What tha fuck is goin’ on?”